DCF Studio

    DASH · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    DoorDash, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -1.21

    Market price

    USD 190.07

    Implied upside

    -100.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 54.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -1.21-100.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 7.87-95.9%
    Market price
    USD 190.07

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -605m-234m137mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 18.0bnUSD 21.7bnUSD 25.7bnUSD 29.9bnUSD 34.1bnUSD 38.1bnUSD 41.6bnUSD 44.6bnUSD 46.7bnUSD 47.9bn+11.5%
    EBITUSD -782.1mUSD -945.2mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bn-11.5%
    NOPATUSD -681.4mUSD -823.5mUSD -976.3mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bn-11.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 995.3mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+11.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -740.3mUSD -828.3mUSD -903.2mUSD -958.6mUSD -988.2mUSD -987.1mUSD -952.3mUSD -883.4mUSD -782.8mUSD -655.8m-1.3%
    Capex, % of revenue4.1%3.8%3.5%3.2%2.9%2.6%2.3%2.0%1.7%1.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -159.3mUSD -140.8mUSD -151.4mUSD -157.3mUSD -157.1mUSD -149.7mUSD -134.3mUSD -111.0mUSD -80.4mUSD -43.9m-13.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -585.7mUSD -589.8mUSD -605.0mUSD -593.2mUSD -549.5mUSD -471.4mUSD -358.9mUSD -215.1mUSD -46.5mUSD 137.3m-
    Discount factor0.94640.84760.75910.67990.60890.54540.48840.43740.39180.3509-
    Present valueUSD -554.3mUSD -499.9mUSD -459.3mUSD -403.3mUSD -334.6mUSD -257.1mUSD -175.3mUSD -94.1mUSD -18.2mUSD 48.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -2.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.651Reported 1.972, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.88%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 82.9bn96.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.3bn3.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.65%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -1.21

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -2.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD -531.9m

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 7.87

    321% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 11.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 4.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 1.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.5bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.65%-1.55-1.55-1.55-1.55-1.55
    10.65%-1.38-1.38-1.38-1.38-1.38
    11.65%-1.21-1.21-1.21-1.21-1.21
    12.65%-1.05-1.05-1.05-1.05-1.05
    13.65%-0.90-0.90-0.90-0.90-0.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 190.07. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    EBIT margin5.3%-4.4%26.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.