DCF Studio

    DASH · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    DoorDash, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 5.63

    Market price

    USD 192.94

    Implied upside

    -97.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 2.9% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 55.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 5.63-97.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 20.09-89.6%
    Market price
    USD 192.94

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m57m114mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 17.5bnUSD 22.4bnUSD 28.6bnUSD 36.5bnUSD 46.6bn+27.7%
    EBITUSD -763.3mUSD -975.0mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -2.0bn-27.7%
    NOPATUSD -665.1mUSD -849.5mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.8bn-27.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 971.4mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.6bn+27.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -722.6mUSD -922.9mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.9bn+27.7%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 459.2mUSD 586.5mUSD 749.2mUSD 956.9mUSD 1.2bn-27.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 43.0mUSD 54.9mUSD 70.1mUSD 89.6mUSD 114.4m+27.7%
    Discount factor0.94020.83110.73470.64940.5741-
    Present valueUSD 40.4mUSD 45.6mUSD 51.5mUSD 58.2mUSD 65.7m+12.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 261.4m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.528Reported 1.788, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity13.40%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.00%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 83.6bn96.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.3bn3.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC13.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 5.63

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD 261.4m
    Less net debt
    USD -2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 2.5bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 20.09

    96% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 11.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 6.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 8.8bn

    Spread between methods: 112%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    11.13%5.665.665.665.665.66
    12.13%5.655.655.655.655.65
    13.13%5.635.635.635.635.63
    14.13%5.625.625.625.625.62
    15.13%5.615.615.615.615.61

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 192.94. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin-4.4%25.7%+30.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.