DCF Studio

    DB1.DE · GER · Financial Services

    Deutsche Börse AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 1642.09

    Market price

    EUR 278.00

    Implied upside

    +490.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 1642.09+490.7%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 1368.62+392.3%
    Market price
    EUR 278.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 8.3bnEUR 9.3bnEUR 10.4bnEUR 11.7bnEUR 13.1bn+12.2%
    EBITEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 4.8bnEUR 5.4bn+12.2%
    NOPATEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 4.0bn+12.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 569.8mEUR 639.3mEUR 717.3mEUR 804.9mEUR 903.1m+12.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -432.9mEUR -485.7mEUR -544.9mEUR -611.4mEUR -686.0m+12.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -173.6mEUR -194.8mEUR -218.5mEUR -245.2mEUR -275.1m+12.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.9bn+12.2%
    Discount factor0.97460.92560.87910.83500.7930-
    Present valueEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.1bn+6.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 13.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.539Reported 0.312, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity5.83%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 50.1bn86.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 8.1bn14.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate26.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.29%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 1642.09

    87% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 4.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.4% of NOPAT)
    EUR -892.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 3.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    11.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 113.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 89.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 103.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -197.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 300.7bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 1368.62

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 50.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 39.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 53.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -197.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 250.6bn

    Spread between methods: 18%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.29%2077.202374.873049.276063.22—
    4.29%1719.271810.491952.282203.542772.67
    5.29%1550.311589.341642.081717.541834.78
    6.29%1451.911471.271495.541526.971569.40
    7.29%1387.501397.811410.121425.141443.93

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 278.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.