DCF Studio

    DBI.AX · ASX · Industrials

    Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    AUD -0.97

    Market price

    AUD 5.42

    Implied upside

    -117.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 12.9% of revenue against depreciation of 6.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 44.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD -0.97-117.9%
    Exit multiple
    AUD 3.52-35.0%
    Market price
    AUD 5.42

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (AUD). Outflows negative.

    0m42m85mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayAUD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueAUD 688.5mAUD 718.9mAUD 750.7mAUD 783.9mAUD 818.5m+4.4%
    EBITAUD 161.1mAUD 168.3mAUD 175.7mAUD 183.5mAUD 191.6m+4.4%
    NOPATAUD 112.8mAUD 117.8mAUD 123.0mAUD 128.4mAUD 134.1m+4.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationAUD 44.2mAUD 46.1mAUD 48.2mAUD 50.3mAUD 52.5m+4.4%
    Less capital expenditureAUD -88.9mAUD -92.8mAUD -96.9mAUD -101.2mAUD -105.7m+4.4%
    Less increase in working capitalAUD 3.1mAUD 3.3mAUD 3.4mAUD 3.6mAUD 3.7m-4.4%
    Free cashflow to firmAUD 71.2mAUD 74.4mAUD 77.6mAUD 81.1mAUD 84.7m+4.4%
    Discount factor0.96300.89300.82810.76800.7122-
    Present valueAUD 68.6mAUD 66.4mAUD 64.3mAUD 62.3mAUD 60.3m-3.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastAUD 321.8m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.35%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.517Reported 0.279, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.45%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt10.10%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationAUD 2.7bn55.4% of capital
    Total debtAUD 2.2bn44.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate30.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.84%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareAUD -0.97

    80% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    AUD 84.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    AUD 134.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.9% of NOPAT)
    AUD -42.8m
    Capitalised
    AUD 91.3m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 1.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 1.2bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 1.6bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 2.1bn
    Equity value
    AUD -480.4m

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareAUD 3.52

    92% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 4.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 3.5bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 3.8bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 2.1bn
    Equity value
    AUD 1.7bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (AUD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.84%0.190.200.220.240.26
    6.84%-0.49-0.48-0.46-0.45-0.43
    7.84%-0.99-0.98-0.97-0.96-0.94
    8.84%-1.38-1.37-1.36-1.35-1.34
    9.84%-1.69-1.68-1.67-1.66-1.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 5.42. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year4.4%31.4%+26.9pp
    EBIT margin23.4%65.5%+42.1pp
    Discount rate7.8%3.0%-4.8pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.