DCF Studio

    DBK.DE · GER · Financial Services

    Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 74.80

    Market price

    EUR 33.05

    Implied upside

    +126.3%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.5% of revenue against depreciation of 0.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 74.80+126.3%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 34.30+3.8%
    Market price
    EUR 33.05

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 34.1bnEUR 36.3bnEUR 38.7bnEUR 41.1bnEUR 43.8bn+6.4%
    EBITEUR 7.6bnEUR 8.0bnEUR 8.6bnEUR 9.1bnEUR 9.7bn+6.4%
    NOPATEUR 5.5bnEUR 5.9bnEUR 6.3bnEUR 6.7bnEUR 7.1bn+6.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 0.00EUR 0.00EUR 0.00EUR 0.00EUR 0.00-
    Less capital expenditureEUR -500.6mEUR -532.5mEUR -566.6mEUR -602.8mEUR -641.3m+6.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -2.1bnEUR -2.2bnEUR -2.3bnEUR -2.5bnEUR -2.6bn+6.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.8bn+6.4%
    Discount factor0.97680.93210.88930.84860.8097-
    Present valueEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.1bn+1.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 15.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.997Reported 0.996, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.58%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.60%Implied cost of debt of 18.2% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 62.1bn27.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 164.5bn72.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate26.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 74.80

    89% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 7.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (52.1% of NOPAT)
    EUR -3.7bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 3.4bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    4.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 151.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 122.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 137.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -7.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 145.1bn

    Exit at 5.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 34.30

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 54.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 44.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 59.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -7.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 66.5bn

    Spread between methods: 74%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.80%129.06129.63130.21——
    3.80%94.3694.7695.1795.58117.63
    4.80%74.1874.4974.8075.1175.42
    5.80%61.0261.2661.5161.7562.00
    6.80%51.7751.9752.1752.3752.58

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 33.05. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.4%-22.6%-29.0pp
    EBIT margin22.1%10.2%-11.9pp
    Discount rate4.8%10.6%+5.8pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.