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    DE · NYQ · Industrials

    Deere & Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 248.50

    Market price

    USD 667.60

    Implied upside

    -62.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-10-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.4% of revenue against depreciation of 4.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.0x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 248.50-62.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 557.62-16.5%
    Market price
    USD 667.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn4bn8bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 41.1bnUSD 44.6bnUSD 48.1bnUSD 51.5bnUSD 54.8bnUSD 57.8bnUSD 60.5bnUSD 63.0bnUSD 65.0bnUSD 66.7bn+5.5%
    EBITUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 13.9bn+5.5%
    NOPATUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.0bn+5.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+5.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.3bnUSD -5.4bn+5.1%
    Capex, % of revenue8.4%8.4%8.4%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 749.1mUSD -744.5mUSD -736.7mUSD -717.1mUSD -685.1mUSD -640.4mUSD -583.3mUSD -514.1mUSD -433.8mUSD -343.8m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 5.7bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.9bn+3.7%
    Discount factor0.96340.89400.82970.77000.71460.66320.61550.57120.53010.4920-
    Present valueUSD 5.5bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 42.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.930Reported 0.895, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.83%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.00%Risk-free + 111bp, the spread for a BBB rating at 2.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 180.0bn73.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 64.3bn26.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.75%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 248.50

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 7.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 11.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.7bn
    Capitalised
    USD 8.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 160.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 79.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 122.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 54.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 67.5bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 557.62

    79% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 331.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 163.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 206.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 54.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 151.5bn

    Spread between methods: 77%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.75%466.64495.34534.41589.48671.24
    6.75%332.92343.48357.63376.81403.35
    7.75%242.44244.82248.51253.90261.62
    8.75%177.29175.71174.55173.92173.99
    9.75%128.22124.68121.19117.79114.47

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 667.60. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-4.5%4.1%12.3%
    EBIT margin24.2%20.8%38.5%
    Discount rate-7.8%5.3%
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.