DCF Studio

    DECK · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Deckers Outdoor Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 118.71

    Market price

    USD 85.00

    Implied upside

    +39.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-03-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.9% of revenue against depreciation of 1.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 118.71+39.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 101.01+18.8%
    Market price
    USD 85.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bn+4.2%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bn+4.2%
    NOPATUSD 973.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 77.4mUSD 81.9mUSD 86.3mUSD 90.6mUSD 94.8mUSD 98.7mUSD 102.4mUSD 105.8mUSD 108.9mUSD 111.6m+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -108.4mUSD -118.9mUSD -129.8mUSD -140.9mUSD -152.3mUSD -163.7mUSD -175.1mUSD -186.4mUSD -197.5mUSD -208.2m+7.5%
    Capex, % of revenue1.9%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -20.6mUSD -28.8mUSD -28.3mUSD -27.6mUSD -26.5mUSD -25.2mUSD -23.7mUSD -21.8mUSD -19.8mUSD -17.4m-1.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 922.2mUSD 964.5mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+3.8%
    Discount factor0.95670.87560.80150.73360.67140.61450.56250.51480.47120.4313-
    Present valueUSD 882.2mUSD 844.5mUSD 812.8mUSD 779.2mUSD 744.0mUSD 707.6mUSD 670.3mUSD 632.5mUSD 594.4mUSD 556.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.071Reported 1.106, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.42%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 499.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 0.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.3bn96.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 375.2m3.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.26%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 118.71

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (7.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -97.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    35.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 19.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -1.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.3bn

    Exit at 7.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 101.01

    45% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -1.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.7bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.26%148.96155.66163.82173.97186.92
    8.26%128.21132.39137.34143.29150.55
    9.26%112.84115.56118.71122.42126.81
    10.26%101.01102.82104.90107.30110.10
    11.26%91.6392.8694.2595.8597.68

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 85.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year14.7%4.2%-0.5%
    EBIT margin23.6%21.6%15.0%
    Discount rate-9.3%12.4%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.