DCF Studio

    DELL · NYQ · Technology

    Dell Technologies Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 313.39

    Market price

    USD 392.78

    Implied upside

    -20.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.5x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 313.39-20.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 645.07+64.2%
    Market price
    USD 392.78

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn11bn22bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 170.3bnUSD 203.1bnUSD 237.9bnUSD 273.7bnUSD 309.2bnUSD 342.8bnUSD 372.8bnUSD 397.8bnUSD 416.0bnUSD 426.4bn+10.7%
    EBITUSD 11.4bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 15.9bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 22.9bnUSD 24.9bnUSD 26.6bnUSD 27.8bnUSD 28.5bn+10.7%
    NOPATUSD 9.4bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 20.5bnUSD 21.8bnUSD 22.9bnUSD 23.4bn+10.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 5.4bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.6bn+10.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.7bnUSD -5.9bnUSD -7.2bnUSD -8.6bnUSD -10.0bnUSD -11.5bnUSD -12.9bnUSD -14.3bnUSD -15.4bnUSD -16.2bn+14.7%
    Capex, % of revenue2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.4%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 2.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 815.9mUSD 464.6m+17.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 12.6bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 16.8bnUSD 18.4bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.8bnUSD 21.4bnUSD 21.6bnUSD 21.2bn+6.0%
    Discount factor0.95470.87010.79300.72270.65870.60030.54720.49870.45450.4142-
    Present valueUSD 12.0bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 8.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 112.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.292Reported 1.436, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.36%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 5.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 249.7bn88.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 31.5bn11.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.72%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 313.39

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 21.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 23.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.7bn
    Capitalised
    USD 20.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    22.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 294.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 122.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 234.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 20.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 214.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 645.07

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 842.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 349.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 461.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 20.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 441.1bn

    Spread between methods: 69%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.72%411.05426.07444.28466.68494.77
    8.72%348.71357.67368.33381.11396.64
    9.72%301.59307.02313.39320.94329.92
    10.72%264.75268.00271.81276.29281.58
    11.72%235.16237.03239.23241.84244.93

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 392.78. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.5%14.1%16.9%
    EBIT margin7.4%6.7%8.3%
    Discount rate-9.7%8.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.