DCF Studio

    DG.PA · PAR · Industrials

    Vinci SA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 365.23

    Market price

    EUR 110.80

    Implied upside

    +229.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 365.23+229.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 205.98+85.9%
    Market price
    EUR 110.80

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn14bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 80.7bnEUR 86.0bnEUR 91.7bnEUR 97.7bnEUR 104.1bn+6.6%
    EBITEUR 9.2bnEUR 9.8bnEUR 10.4bnEUR 11.1bnEUR 11.8bn+6.6%
    NOPATEUR 6.8bnEUR 7.2bnEUR 7.7bnEUR 8.2bnEUR 8.8bn+6.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 4.5bnEUR 4.8bnEUR 5.1bnEUR 5.4bnEUR 5.8bn+6.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -4.2bnEUR -4.5bnEUR -4.8bnEUR -5.1bnEUR -5.5bn+6.6%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 4.0bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 4.5bnEUR 4.8bnEUR 5.2bn-6.6%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 11.0bnEUR 11.8bnEUR 12.5bnEUR 13.4bnEUR 14.3bn+6.6%
    Discount factor0.97050.91400.86080.81070.7635-
    Present valueEUR 10.7bnEUR 10.8bnEUR 10.8bnEUR 10.8bnEUR 10.9bn+0.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 54.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.820Reported 0.731, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.12%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.08%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 61.3bn61.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 37.7bn38.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.18%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 365.23

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 14.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 10.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.8% of NOPAT)
    EUR -2.7bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 8.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 225.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 172.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 226.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 19.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 207.0bn

    Exit at 6.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 205.98

    60% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 107.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 81.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 135.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 19.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 116.8bn

    Spread between methods: 56%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.18%575.23658.44790.711034.371634.99
    5.18%418.96452.78498.94565.93672.34
    6.18%329.16345.12365.23391.44427.15
    7.18%270.75278.74288.29299.97314.62
    8.18%229.64233.61238.16243.46249.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 110.80. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.6%-8.7%-15.3pp
    EBIT margin11.4%1.9%-9.4pp
    Discount rate6.2%15.4%+9.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.