DCF Studio

    DHL.DE · GER · Industrials

    DHL AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 34.37

    Market price

    EUR 56.00

    Implied upside

    -38.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 34.37-38.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 41.22-26.4%
    Market price
    EUR 56.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 79.3bnEUR 75.9bnEUR 72.7bnEUR 69.6bnEUR 66.6bn-4.3%
    EBITEUR 5.6bnEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.1bnEUR 4.9bnEUR 4.7bn-4.3%
    NOPATEUR 3.9bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.3bn-4.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 4.2bnEUR 4.0bnEUR 3.9bnEUR 3.7bnEUR 3.5bn-4.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -3.0bnEUR -2.9bnEUR -2.8bnEUR -2.6bnEUR -2.5bn-4.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 149.5mEUR 143.1mEUR 137.0mEUR 131.1mEUR 125.6m+4.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.1bnEUR 4.9bnEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.5bn-4.3%
    Discount factor0.96480.89800.83580.77800.7241-
    Present valueEUR 5.1bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.1bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.2bn-10.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 20.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta1.090Reported 1.134, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.14%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.62%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 62.2bn71.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 25.4bn29.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate29.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.44%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 34.37

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 4.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.4% of NOPAT)
    EUR -672.8m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 57.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 41.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 62.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 23.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 39.5bn

    Exit at 8.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 41.22

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 68.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 49.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 70.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 23.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 47.4bn

    Spread between methods: 18%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.44%52.7258.1465.3875.5690.93
    6.44%39.5942.4445.9850.5356.61
    7.44%30.8432.4534.3736.7139.62
    8.44%24.5725.5326.6327.9229.45
    9.44%19.8520.4321.0721.8022.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 56.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-4.3%3.8%+8.1pp
    EBIT margin7.0%10.2%+3.1pp
    Discount rate7.4%5.8%-1.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.