DCF Studio

    DHR · NYQ · Healthcare

    Danaher Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 125.82

    Market price

    USD 227.97

    Implied upside

    -44.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 24.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 125.82-44.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 214.72-5.8%
    Market price
    USD 227.97

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn4bn7bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 26.3bnUSD 28.3bnUSD 30.3bnUSD 32.2bnUSD 34.1bnUSD 35.8bnUSD 37.4bnUSD 38.8bnUSD 40.0bnUSD 41.0bn+5.1%
    EBITUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.2bn+5.1%
    NOPATUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.8bn+5.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+5.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.2bn+13.6%
    Capex, % of revenue5.1%5.7%6.3%6.9%7.5%8.0%8.6%9.2%9.8%10.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -316.3mUSD -377.6mUSD -372.4mUSD -361.9mUSD -345.9mUSD -324.5mUSD -297.6mUSD -265.4mUSD -228.4mUSD -187.0m-5.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.1bn+2.4%
    Discount factor0.96170.88950.82270.76100.70380.65100.60210.55690.51510.4764-
    Present valueUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 45.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.868Reported 0.803, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.57%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 17.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 160.3bn89.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 19.7bn10.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.12%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 125.82

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 7.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 10.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -3.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 6.9bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 125.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 59.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 105.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 90.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 214.72

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 259.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 123.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 168.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 153.8bn

    Spread between methods: 52%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.12%182.41179.91177.47175.14172.98
    7.12%151.97149.70147.43145.15142.88
    8.12%129.58127.70125.82123.93122.05
    9.12%112.18110.59109.00107.42105.83
    10.12%98.2796.9195.5694.2092.85

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 227.97. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-2.7%5.3%12.0%
    EBIT margin28.3%22.4%41.9%
    Discount rate-8.1%5.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.