DCF Studio

    DIA.MI · MIL · Healthcare

    DiaSorin S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 39.88

    Market price

    EUR 76.62

    Implied upside

    -48.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 39.88-48.0%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 50.98-33.5%
    Market price
    EUR 76.62

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m97m194mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.0bnEUR 962.0m-4.2%
    EBITEUR 266.6mEUR 255.3mEUR 244.5mEUR 234.1mEUR 224.2m-4.2%
    NOPATEUR 201.1mEUR 192.5mEUR 184.4mEUR 176.5mEUR 169.0m-4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 128.2mEUR 122.7mEUR 117.5mEUR 112.5mEUR 107.7m-4.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -114.0mEUR -109.1mEUR -104.5mEUR -100.1mEUR -95.8m-4.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -21.6mEUR -20.6mEUR -19.8mEUR -18.9mEUR -18.1m-4.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 193.7mEUR 185.5mEUR 177.6mEUR 170.1mEUR 162.9m-4.2%
    Discount factor0.96090.88710.81910.75620.6982-
    Present valueEUR 186.1mEUR 164.6mEUR 145.5mEUR 128.6mEUR 113.7m-11.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 738.5m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.798Reported 0.698, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.38%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 3.8bn82.7% of capital
    Total debtEUR 791.2m17.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate24.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.31%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 39.88

    73% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 162.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 203.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.0% of NOPAT)
    EUR -44.8m
    Capitalised
    EUR 158.9m
    ROIC (reported)
    11.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 2.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 2.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 2.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 582.7m
    Equity value
    EUR 2.1bn

    Exit at 11.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 50.98

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 3.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 2.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 582.7m
    Equity value
    EUR 2.7bn

    Spread between methods: 24%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.31%57.0060.4664.7970.4077.95
    7.31%45.6747.5349.7552.4655.85
    8.31%37.6638.6939.8841.2642.92
    9.31%31.7032.2732.8933.6034.41
    10.31%27.1027.3827.6928.0228.39

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 76.62. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-4.2%6.7%+11.0pp
    EBIT margin23.3%42.3%+19.0pp
    Discount rate8.3%5.8%-2.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.