DCF Studio

    DIS · NYQ · Communication Services

    The Walt Disney Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 62.58

    Market price

    USD 113.11

    Implied upside

    -44.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 62.58-44.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 87.80-22.4%
    Market price
    USD 113.11

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn13bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 101.5bnUSD 106.0bnUSD 110.5bnUSD 114.8bnUSD 119.1bnUSD 123.2bnUSD 127.2bnUSD 131.0bnUSD 134.5bnUSD 137.9bn+3.5%
    EBITUSD 11.7bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.6bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 15.9bn+3.5%
    NOPATUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.5bn+3.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.1bn+3.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -6.6bnUSD -6.7bnUSD -6.9bnUSD -7.0bnUSD -7.1bnUSD -7.1bnUSD -7.2bnUSD -7.2bnUSD -7.2bnUSD -7.2bn+1.0%
    Capex, % of revenue6.5%6.4%6.2%6.1%5.9%5.8%5.6%5.5%5.4%5.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 213.6mUSD 135.3mUSD 133.6mUSD 131.2mUSD 128.0mUSD 124.1mUSD 119.5mUSD 114.1mUSD 108.0mUSD 101.2m+8.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.5bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 13.5bn+4.9%
    Discount factor0.95690.87630.80240.73480.67280.61610.56420.51660.47310.4332-
    Present valueUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 5.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 71.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.285Reported 1.426, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.33%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 195.3bn81.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 44.9bn18.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.20%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 62.58

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 13.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 16.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -4.6bn
    Capitalised
    USD 12.3bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 187.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 81.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 152.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 39.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 113.3bn

    Exit at 12.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 87.80

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 292.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 126.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 198.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 39.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 159.0bn

    Spread between methods: 34%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.20%90.6689.1387.6086.0784.54
    8.20%76.0874.8173.5472.2771.00
    9.20%64.7263.6562.5861.5160.43
    10.20%55.6354.7153.8052.8851.97
    11.20%48.2047.4146.6245.8245.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 113.11. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.5%3.9%9.5%
    EBIT margin14.6%11.5%20.1%
    Discount rate-9.2%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.