DCF Studio

    DLR · NYQ · Real Estate

    Digital Realty Trust, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 1.62

    Market price

    USD 175.95

    Implied upside

    -99.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 0.9% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 31.87% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 29.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 1.62-99.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 34.89-80.2%
    Market price
    USD 175.95

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.3bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.2bn+6.8%
    EBITUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+6.8%
    NOPATUSD 946.6mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+6.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bn+6.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.7bn+8.1%
    Capex, % of revenue31.9%32.3%32.7%33.1%33.6%34.0%34.4%34.8%35.3%35.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 273.1mUSD 187.2mUSD 187.8mUSD 184.5mUSD 176.9mUSD 164.8mUSD 148.1mUSD 127.2mUSD 102.3mUSD 74.0m+13.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+0.5%
    Discount factor0.96020.88520.81610.75240.69370.63950.58960.54360.50110.4620-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 994.6mUSD 942.9mUSD 882.6mUSD 815.3mUSD 742.8mUSD 667.2mUSD 590.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.001Reported 1.002, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.13%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 66.4bn77.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 19.7bn22.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate7.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.47%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 1.62

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -504.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 2.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 34.89

    86% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 120.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 55.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 64.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 48.5bn

    Spread between methods: 182%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.47%6.175.945.725.505.27
    7.47%3.763.583.403.213.03
    8.47%1.931.781.621.471.32
    9.47%0.480.350.220.10-0.03
    10.47%-0.69-0.80-0.91-1.02-1.13

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 175.95. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year9.2%8.0%43.2%
    Discount rate-8.5%2.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.