DCF Studio

    DOV · NYQ · Industrials

    Dover Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 126.74

    Market price

    USD 215.91

    Implied upside

    -41.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 126.74-41.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 194.79-9.8%
    Market price
    USD 215.91

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.5bn+4.1%
    EBITUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn+4.1%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+4.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 365.6mUSD 386.2mUSD 406.4mUSD 426.1mUSD 445.1mUSD 463.2mUSD 480.2mUSD 496.0mUSD 510.4mUSD 523.1m+4.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -216.9mUSD -258.6mUSD -303.2mUSD -350.5mUSD -400.1mUSD -451.8mUSD -505.1mUSD -559.5mUSD -614.7mUSD -670.0m+13.4%
    Capex, % of revenue2.5%2.8%3.1%3.5%3.8%4.1%4.4%4.7%5.1%5.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -132.9mUSD -105.9mUSD -104.1mUSD -101.4mUSD -97.7mUSD -93.1mUSD -87.5mUSD -81.1mUSD -73.8mUSD -65.6m-7.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+2.3%
    Discount factor0.95860.88080.80930.74360.68330.62790.57690.53010.48710.4476-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 976.6mUSD 919.7mUSD 862.6mUSD 805.7mUSD 749.5mUSD 694.4mUSD 640.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.064Reported 1.095, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.39%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 12.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 28.7bn88.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.6bn11.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.83%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 126.74

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -424.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    11.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 23.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.5bn

    Exit at 17.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 194.79

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 44.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 28.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.8bn

    Spread between methods: 42%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.83%179.18183.41188.96196.34206.38
    7.83%148.70150.10152.03154.64158.19
    8.83%126.56126.55126.74127.19127.98
    9.83%109.76109.01108.33107.73107.24
    10.83%96.5895.4594.3293.2192.11

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 215.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.0%4.4%11.0%
    EBIT margin17.0%16.2%27.5%
    Discount rate-8.8%6.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.