DCF Studio

    DPZ · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Domino's Pizza, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 269.79

    Market price

    USD 322.35

    Implied upside

    -16.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 2.3% of revenue against depreciation of 1.8%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 269.79-16.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 287.56-10.8%
    Market price
    USD 322.35

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m426m852mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.2bn+2.1%
    EBITUSD 942.3mUSD 957.8mUSD 974.6mUSD 992.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+2.1%
    NOPATUSD 746.8mUSD 759.1mUSD 772.4mUSD 786.8mUSD 802.3mUSD 818.9mUSD 836.8mUSD 855.9mUSD 876.4mUSD 898.3m+2.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 93.8mUSD 95.3mUSD 97.0mUSD 98.8mUSD 100.7mUSD 102.8mUSD 105.1mUSD 107.5mUSD 110.0mUSD 112.8m+2.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -118.2mUSD -120.9mUSD -123.8mUSD -126.9mUSD -130.2mUSD -133.7mUSD -137.4mUSD -141.4mUSD -145.7mUSD -150.2m+2.7%
    Capex, % of revenue2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -13.9mUSD -4.8mUSD -5.2mUSD -5.6mUSD -6.1mUSD -6.5mUSD -7.0mUSD -7.5mUSD -8.0mUSD -8.6m-5.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 708.5mUSD 728.7mUSD 740.4mUSD 753.1mUSD 766.8mUSD 781.6mUSD 797.4mUSD 814.5mUSD 832.7mUSD 852.3m+2.1%
    Discount factor0.96420.89630.83330.77460.72010.66950.62240.57860.53790.5000-
    Present valueUSD 683.1mUSD 653.2mUSD 617.0mUSD 583.4mUSD 552.2mUSD 523.2mUSD 496.3mUSD 471.2mUSD 447.9mUSD 426.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.978Reported 0.967, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.03%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 10.6bn67.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.0bn32.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.57%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 269.79

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 852.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 898.3m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (4.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -37.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 860.9m
    ROIC (reported)
    60.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.2bn

    Exit at 14.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 287.56

    63% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.8bn

    Spread between methods: 6%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.57%412.85463.99531.98626.68767.44
    6.57%303.78332.61368.67414.98476.56
    7.57%230.73248.45269.78295.89328.55
    8.57%178.39189.94203.48219.53238.85
    9.57%139.07146.91155.92166.38178.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 322.35. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.9%2.4%3.8%
    EBIT margin19.2%18.2%20.5%
    Discount rate-7.6%7.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.