DCF Studio

    DSY.PA · PAR · Technology

    Dassault Systèmes SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 22.26

    Market price

    EUR 20.56

    Implied upside

    +8.3%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 22.26+8.3%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 23.32+13.4%
    Market price
    EUR 20.56

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 6.4bnEUR 6.6bnEUR 6.9bnEUR 7.1bnEUR 7.3bn+3.2%
    EBITEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.6bn+3.2%
    NOPATEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bn+3.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 620.7mEUR 640.9mEUR 661.7mEUR 683.2mEUR 705.4m+3.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -168.4mEUR -173.9mEUR -179.5mEUR -185.4mEUR -191.4m+3.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -105.9mEUR -109.3mEUR -112.9mEUR -116.6mEUR -120.3m+3.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bn+3.2%
    Discount factor0.96720.90480.84640.79180.7407-
    Present valueEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bn-3.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 6.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.701Reported 0.553, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.40%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 27.0bn89.5% of capital
    Total debtEUR 3.2bn10.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.90%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 22.26

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -433.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 29.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 21.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 28.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -956.2m
    Equity value
    EUR 29.6bn

    Exit at 13.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 23.32

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 31.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 23.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 30.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -956.2m
    Equity value
    EUR 31.0bn

    Spread between methods: 5%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.90%32.1434.9338.8644.8455.05
    5.90%25.2526.5128.1330.2933.32
    6.90%20.9121.5222.2623.1824.35
    7.90%17.9218.2218.5618.9619.45
    8.90%15.7415.8716.0116.1616.34

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 20.56. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year3.2%1.1%-2.1pp
    EBIT margin22.3%20.1%-2.3pp
    Discount rate6.9%7.3%+0.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.