DCF Studio

    DTE · NYQ · Utilities

    DTE Energy Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 6.77

    Market price

    USD 135.85

    Implied upside

    -95.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 5.0% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 28.1% of revenue against depreciation of 8.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 6.77-95.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 72.07-46.9%
    Market price
    USD 135.85

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 17.9bnUSD 18.5bnUSD 19.0bnUSD 19.6bnUSD 20.2bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 21.2bn+3.2%
    EBITUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bn+3.2%
    NOPATUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bn+3.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+3.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.0bn-4.5%
    Capex, % of revenue28.1%26.5%25.0%23.4%21.8%20.3%18.7%17.1%15.6%14.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -24.8mUSD -69.9mUSD -69.4mUSD -68.7mUSD -67.8mUSD -66.5mUSD -65.0mUSD -63.3mUSD -61.3mUSD -59.0m+10.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -830.7mUSD -646.7mUSD -397.9mUSD -129.8mUSD 157.2mUSD 462.8mUSD 786.2mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.9bn-
    Discount factor0.96840.90820.85170.79870.74900.70250.65880.61780.57940.5433-
    Present valueUSD -804.5mUSD -587.3mUSD -338.9mUSD -103.7mUSD 117.8mUSD 325.1mUSD 517.9mUSD 696.2mUSD 859.6mUSD 1.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.568Reported 0.355, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.30%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 28.3bn51.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 26.3bn48.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate5.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.63%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 6.77

    94% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 1.9bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 47.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 25.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 27.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 26.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 1.4bn

    Exit at 14.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 72.07

    96% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 72.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 39.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 41.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 26.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.9bn

    Spread between methods: 166%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.63%127.26138.69157.05188.73251.36
    5.63%52.9852.2252.2353.4556.73
    6.63%12.289.526.774.011.26
    7.63%-13.25-15.51-17.77-20.03-22.30
    8.63%-32.46-34.35-36.24-38.14-40.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 135.85. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-6.3%3.0%10.3%
    EBIT margin18.1%15.2%25.0%
    Discount rate-6.6%4.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.