DCF Studio

    DTG.DE · GER · Industrials

    Daimler Truck Holding AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 41.86

    Market price

    EUR 43.49

    Implied upside

    -3.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 2.9% of revenue against depreciation of 2.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 41.86-3.7%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 41.09-5.5%
    Market price
    EUR 43.49

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 43.9bnEUR 42.2bnEUR 40.7bnEUR 39.2bnEUR 37.8bn-3.7%
    EBITEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 2.9bn-3.7%
    NOPATEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.2bn-3.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 974.1mEUR 938.3mEUR 903.8mEUR 870.6mEUR 838.6m-3.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.3bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.1bn-3.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 262.1mEUR 252.5mEUR 243.2mEUR 234.2mEUR 225.6m+3.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.2bn-3.7%
    Discount factor0.97390.92370.87610.83100.7882-
    Present valueEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.7bn-8.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 10.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.949Reported 0.924, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.29%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 33.1bn54.5% of capital
    Total debtEUR 27.7bn45.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate22.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.43%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 41.86

    79% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -820.8m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    6.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 48.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 38.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 48.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 16.4bn
    Equity value
    EUR 32.2bn

    Exit at 12.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 41.09

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 47.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 37.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 48.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 16.4bn
    Equity value
    EUR 31.6bn

    Spread between methods: 2%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.43%93.47116.23163.21318.35—
    4.43%55.9962.0771.2086.59118.28
    5.43%37.5439.4141.8645.2550.31
    6.43%26.5326.9327.3827.9228.58
    7.43%19.9720.1120.2520.3920.53

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.49. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-3.7%-3.1%+0.6pp
    EBIT margin7.6%7.8%+0.2pp
    Discount rate5.4%5.4%-0.1pp
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.