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    DUK · NYQ · Utilities

    Duke Energy Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 27.28

    Market price

    USD 128.38

    Implied upside

    -78.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 41.7% of revenue against depreciation of 21.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 27.28-78.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 88.98-30.7%
    Market price
    USD 128.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn6bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 33.8bnUSD 35.3bnUSD 36.8bnUSD 38.3bnUSD 39.7bnUSD 41.1bnUSD 42.4bnUSD 43.7bnUSD 44.9bnUSD 46.0bn+3.5%
    EBITUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.5bn+3.5%
    NOPATUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.3bn+3.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 9.9bn+3.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -14.1bnUSD -14.3bnUSD -14.4bnUSD -14.5bnUSD -14.5bnUSD -14.5bnUSD -14.5bnUSD -14.3bnUSD -14.2bnUSD -13.9bn-0.1%
    Capex, % of revenue41.7%40.4%39.2%37.9%36.6%35.3%34.1%32.8%31.5%30.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -177.5mUSD -178.2mUSD -175.9mUSD -172.5mUSD -168.2mUSD -162.8mUSD -156.4mUSD -149.0mUSD -140.6mUSD -131.2m-3.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 566.2mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 6.2bn+30.4%
    Discount factor0.96930.91070.85560.80390.75530.70960.66670.62640.58860.5530-
    Present valueUSD 548.8mUSD 954.6mUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 21.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.536Reported 0.308, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.16%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 100.1bn52.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 90.9bn47.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate10.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.43%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 27.28

    81% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 6.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 10.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (38.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -4.0bn
    Capitalised
    USD 6.3bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 163.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 90.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 111.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 90.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 21.2bn

    Exit at 11.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 88.98

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 250.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 138.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 159.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 90.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 69.1bn

    Spread between methods: 106%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.44%134.15139.89150.44170.81216.76
    5.44%66.6763.4860.2957.0953.90
    6.44%32.3729.8227.2724.7322.18
    7.43%7.615.533.441.36-0.72
    8.43%-11.02-12.75-14.49-16.23-17.96

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 128.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.9%3.6%9.6%
    EBIT margin26.6%24.9%38.4%
    Discount rate-6.4%4.6%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.