DCF Studio

    DVA · NYQ · Healthcare

    DaVita Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 316.65

    Market price

    USD 185.74

    Implied upside

    +70.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 316.65+70.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 236.49+27.3%
    Market price
    USD 185.74

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.3bnUSD 15.9bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 18.1bnUSD 18.5bnUSD 19.0bn+3.3%
    EBITUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bn+3.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bn+3.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 826.2mUSD 860.5mUSD 894.5mUSD 927.9mUSD 960.7mUSD 992.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+3.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -652.4mUSD -729.4mUSD -810.2mUSD -894.4mUSD -981.8mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bn+9.3%
    Capex, % of revenue4.6%4.9%5.3%5.6%6.0%6.3%6.6%7.0%7.3%7.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -70.3mUSD -80.3mUSD -79.5mUSD -78.3mUSD -76.7mUSD -74.8mUSD -72.5mUSD -69.8mUSD -66.7mUSD -63.3m-1.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+0.1%
    Discount factor0.96860.90870.85260.79990.75050.70410.66060.61970.58140.5455-
    Present valueUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 981.9mUSD 911.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.905Reported 0.858, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.72%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.7bn47.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 12.9bn52.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.59%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 316.65

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -346.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 43.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 36.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 24.0bn

    Exit at 8.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 236.49

    59% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 32.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 30.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.9bn

    Spread between methods: 29%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.59%555.06634.00751.98945.881320.45
    5.59%382.67417.31463.93529.49627.60
    6.59%278.07295.01316.65344.94383.13
    7.59%207.83216.43227.13240.63257.96
    8.59%157.41161.65166.92173.49181.74

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 185.74. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.5%3.4%-0.6%
    EBIT margin15.3%13.6%9.9%
    Discount rate-6.6%8.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.