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    Devon Energy Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 64.19

    Market price

    USD 48.61

    Implied upside

    +32.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 30.5% of revenue against depreciation of 17.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 64.19+32.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 62.82+29.2%
    Market price
    USD 48.61

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 16.6bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 15.4bnUSD 14.9bnUSD 14.3bn-3.6%
    EBITUSD 5.1bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.4bn-3.6%
    NOPATUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.5bn-3.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bn-3.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -5.1bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.4bn-3.6%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -22.6mUSD -21.8mUSD -21.0mUSD -20.3mUSD -19.5m-3.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn-3.6%
    Discount factor0.96300.89300.82820.76800.7122-
    Present valueUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bn-10.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.615Reported 0.426, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.38%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 53.5bn86.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.6bn13.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.83%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 64.19

    85% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -487.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 57.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 47.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 40.6bn

    Exit at 8.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 62.82

    85% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 56.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 39.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 46.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 39.8bn

    Spread between methods: 2%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.83%91.23100.42112.33128.40151.31
    6.83%70.8876.1882.6790.83101.39
    7.83%57.0160.3064.1968.8674.58
    8.83%46.9849.1351.5954.4757.86
    9.83%39.3940.8442.4744.3346.47

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 48.61. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-3.6%-8.2%-4.6pp
    EBIT margin30.6%25.2%-5.4pp
    Discount rate7.8%9.1%+1.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.