DCF Studio

    DXCM · NMS · Healthcare

    DexCom, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 19.64

    Market price

    USD 84.76

    Implied upside

    -76.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.9% of revenue against depreciation of 5.3%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 27.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 19.64-76.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 45.96-45.8%
    Market price
    USD 84.76

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m436m873mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.1bn+6.4%
    EBITUSD 841.5mUSD 928.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn+6.4%
    NOPATUSD 665.2mUSD 734.1mUSD 803.0mUSD 870.4mUSD 935.0mUSD 995.1mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+6.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 278.3mUSD 307.1mUSD 335.9mUSD 364.1mUSD 391.1mUSD 416.3mUSD 439.0mUSD 458.6mUSD 474.6mUSD 486.4m+6.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -467.4mUSD -508.2mUSD -547.4mUSD -584.2mUSD -617.7mUSD -647.0mUSD -671.2mUSD -689.7mUSD -701.8mUSD -707.1m+4.7%
    Capex, % of revenue8.9%8.8%8.7%8.5%8.4%8.3%8.1%8.0%7.9%7.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -175.6mUSD -168.0mUSD -167.8mUSD -164.4mUSD -157.3mUSD -146.6mUSD -132.2mUSD -114.2mUSD -93.1mUSD -69.1m-9.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 300.5mUSD 365.1mUSD 423.7mUSD 486.0mUSD 551.1mUSD 617.9mUSD 685.0mUSD 750.9mUSD 814.1mUSD 872.9m+12.6%
    Discount factor0.95290.86540.78590.71370.64810.58850.53440.48530.44070.4002-
    Present valueUSD 286.4mUSD 315.9mUSD 333.0mUSD 346.9mUSD 357.2mUSD 363.6mUSD 366.1mUSD 364.4mUSD 358.8mUSD 349.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 3.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.297Reported 1.443, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.38%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 49.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 0.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 31.6bn95.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.4bn4.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.12%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 19.64

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 872.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -291.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 927.3m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 12.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 8.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 472.0m
    Equity value
    USD 8.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 45.96

    82% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 39.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 472.0m
    Equity value
    USD 18.6bn

    Spread between methods: 80%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.12%27.7427.8628.0528.3428.77
    9.12%23.4123.2923.1923.1323.10
    10.12%20.1319.8819.6419.4019.17
    11.12%17.7017.4517.2116.9616.71
    12.12%15.7915.5715.3615.1414.93

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 84.76. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year17.0%7.0%26.9%
    EBIT margin19.6%16.1%59.1%
    Discount rate-10.1%4.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.