DCF Studio

    ECHO · NMS · Communication Services

    EchoStar Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -113.45

    Market price

    USD 98.23

    Implied upside

    -215.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 28.0% of revenue against depreciation of 9.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 37.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -113.45-215.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD -66.21-167.4%
    Market price
    USD 98.23

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -2233m-1028m177mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.2bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.1bn-1.8%
    EBITUSD 437.9mUSD 411.8mUSD 391.6mUSD 376.5mUSD 366.1mUSD 359.7mUSD 357.3mUSD 358.7mUSD 363.8mUSD 372.9m-1.8%
    NOPATUSD 345.9mUSD 325.3mUSD 309.4mUSD 297.5mUSD 289.2mUSD 284.2mUSD 282.3mUSD 283.4mUSD 287.4mUSD 294.6m-1.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn-1.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.0bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.3bn-12.0%
    Capex, % of revenue28.0%26.1%24.1%22.2%20.2%18.3%16.3%14.3%12.4%10.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 44.6mUSD 49.8mUSD 38.5mUSD 28.7mUSD 20.0mUSD 12.1mUSD 4.6mUSD -2.6mUSD -9.9mUSD -17.3m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -2.2bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -952.6mUSD -715.0mUSD -490.4mUSD -271.5mUSD -51.3mUSD 177.3m-
    Discount factor0.96510.89890.83720.77980.72630.67650.63010.58690.54660.5091-
    Present valueUSD -2.2bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -944.5mUSD -691.9mUSD -483.7mUSD -309.0mUSD -159.3mUSD -28.1mUSD 90.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -7.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.062Reported 1.093, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.39%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a D rating at -0.1x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 28.6bn48.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 30.1bn51.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.36%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -113.45

    -38% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 177.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 294.6m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -100.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 194.6m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -5.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 27.1bn
    Equity value
    USD -32.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -66.21

    194% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 30.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 8.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 27.1bn
    Equity value
    USD -19.0bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.36%-109.94-110.21-110.49-110.76-111.03
    6.36%-111.88-112.10-112.31-112.53-112.75
    7.36%-113.09-113.27-113.45-113.63-113.81
    8.36%-113.86-114.01-114.16-114.30-114.45
    9.36%-114.33-114.45-114.58-114.70-114.83

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 98.23. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-7.0%-2.1%57.2%
    EBIT margin12.0%3.1%50.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.