DCF Studio

    EDEN.PA · PAR · Financial Services

    Edenred SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 121.65

    Market price

    EUR 28.38

    Implied upside

    +328.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 121.65+328.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 67.24+136.9%
    Market price
    EUR 28.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 4.9bnEUR 5.6bn+13.4%
    EBITEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bn+13.4%
    NOPATEUR 766.3mEUR 869.0mEUR 985.3mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bn+13.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 337.2mEUR 382.4mEUR 433.6mEUR 491.6mEUR 557.5m+13.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -245.7mEUR -278.7mEUR -316.0mEUR -358.3mEUR -406.2m+13.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 299.6mEUR 339.7mEUR 385.2mEUR 436.8mEUR 495.3m-13.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.9bn+13.4%
    Discount factor0.97030.91350.86010.80970.7623-
    Present valueEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bn+6.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 6.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.782Reported 0.675, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.89%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.20%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationEUR 6.5bn58.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.6bn41.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.22%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 121.65

    78% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.7% of NOPAT)
    EUR -160.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    19.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 30.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 23.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 29.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 28.6bn

    Exit at 6.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 67.24

    62% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 13.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 10.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 16.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 15.8bn

    Spread between methods: 58%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.22%178.53209.07257.33345.19555.61
    5.22%131.55145.52164.60192.23235.91
    6.22%104.41112.02121.65134.24151.43
    7.22%86.7091.2896.82103.65112.28
    8.22%74.2177.1680.6184.7089.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 28.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year13.4%-12.4%-25.8pp
    EBIT margin30.8%6.2%-24.5pp
    Discount rate6.2%19.6%+13.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.