DCF Studio

    EDV.L · LSE · Basic Materials

    Endeavour Mining plc

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    GBp 8701.72

    Market price

    GBp 4647.00

    Implied upside

    +87.3%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 0.7466

    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in GBp. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: GBP assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    GBp 8701.72+87.3%
    Exit multiple
    GBp 8947.29+92.5%
    Market price
    GBp 4647.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.4bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 14.0bn+27.0%
    EBITUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 4.5bn+27.0%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.4bn+27.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.4bn+27.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -3.3bn+27.0%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -178.5mUSD -226.7mUSD -287.8mUSD -365.3mUSD -463.8m+27.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.9bn+27.0%
    Discount factor0.95110.86050.77850.70420.6371-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.9bn+14.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.50%GBP assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.139Reported 1.207, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.76%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt9.13%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.2bn94.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 685.7m5.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 116.55

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -684.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 34.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 29.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 185.5m
    Equity value
    USD 28.8bn

    Exit at 4.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 119.84

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 35.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 29.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 185.5m
    Equity value
    USD 29.7bn

    Spread between methods: 3%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.54%149.17152.94157.27162.31168.28
    9.54%129.35131.55134.00136.77139.94
    10.54%113.96115.20116.55118.03119.67
    11.54%101.68102.31102.98103.68104.44
    12.54%91.8292.1492.4692.7893.10

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 62.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year27.0%9.9%-17.1pp
    EBIT margin32.1%17.8%-14.4pp
    Discount rate10.5%17.6%+7.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.