DCF Studio

    EFX · NYQ · Industrials

    Equifax Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 76.32

    Market price

    USD 192.51

    Implied upside

    -60.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 76.32-60.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 176.56-8.3%
    Market price
    USD 192.51

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bn+4.2%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+4.2%
    NOPATUSD 983.8mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 780.3mUSD 826.8mUSD 872.4mUSD 916.9mUSD 959.6mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -675.6mUSD -760.7mUSD -850.1mUSD -943.1mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bn+9.5%
    Capex, % of revenue10.1%10.8%11.4%12.0%12.7%13.3%13.9%14.6%15.2%15.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -79.2mUSD -53.2mUSD -52.2mUSD -50.8mUSD -48.9mUSD -46.4mUSD -43.4mUSD -39.9mUSD -36.0mUSD -31.6m-9.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 995.1m-0.2%
    Discount factor0.95820.87990.80790.74190.68120.62550.57440.52740.48430.4447-
    Present valueUSD 967.0mUSD 928.5mUSD 864.6mUSD 800.5mUSD 736.8mUSD 674.0mUSD 612.8mUSD 553.6mUSD 496.7mUSD 442.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.184Reported 1.274, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.90%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 5.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 22.6bn81.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.1bn18.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.90%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 76.32

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 995.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -400.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.5bn

    Exit at 15.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 176.56

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 44.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 26.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 21.9bn

    Spread between methods: 79%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.90%120.02120.69121.87123.77126.70
    7.90%95.8794.8893.9993.2392.64
    8.90%79.0877.7076.3274.9473.56
    9.90%66.9365.7664.5863.4162.24
    10.90%57.0456.0355.0254.0153.00

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 192.51. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.8%4.8%14.0%
    EBIT margin20.6%18.7%37.6%
    Discount rate-8.9%5.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.