DCF Studio

    EN.PA · PAR · Industrials

    Bouygues SA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 222.33

    Market price

    EUR 43.38

    Implied upside

    +412.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 222.33+412.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 150.19+246.2%
    Market price
    EUR 43.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn10bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 61.8bnEUR 67.1bnEUR 72.9bnEUR 79.1bnEUR 85.9bn+8.6%
    EBITEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.8bn+8.6%
    NOPATEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.8bn+8.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.1bnEUR 4.5bnEUR 4.8bn+8.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -3.1bnEUR -3.4bnEUR -3.7bnEUR -4.0bnEUR -4.3bn+8.6%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 4.9bnEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.8bnEUR 6.3bnEUR 6.8bn-8.6%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 7.3bnEUR 7.9bnEUR 8.6bnEUR 9.3bnEUR 10.1bn+8.6%
    Discount factor0.97470.92600.87980.83590.7941-
    Present valueEUR 7.1bnEUR 7.3bnEUR 7.6bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 8.0bn+3.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 37.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.782Reported 0.674, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.89%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.20%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 16.6bn52.2% of capital
    Total debtEUR 15.2bn47.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.26%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 222.33

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 10.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -935.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    7.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 69.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 54.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 92.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 85.0bn

    Exit at 4.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 150.19

    42% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 34.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 27.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 65.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 57.4bn

    Spread between methods: 39%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.26%375.85459.66653.801605.21—
    4.26%259.50281.70316.31378.16521.31
    5.26%204.14211.90222.33237.22260.37
    6.26%171.35174.07177.43181.69187.38
    7.26%149.39150.01150.68151.42152.27

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year8.6%-5.2%-13.8pp
    EBIT margin4.4%-1.3%-5.7pp
    Discount rate5.3%33.2%+28.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.