DCF Studio

    ENG.MC · MCE · Utilities

    Enagás, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 8.75

    Market price

    EUR 16.80

    Implied upside

    -47.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 12.47% of revenue against depreciation of 29.74%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 29.74% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 8.75-47.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 17.65+5.1%
    Market price
    EUR 16.80

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m122m245mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 961.5mEUR 962.6mEUR 963.7mEUR 964.8mEUR 965.9m+0.1%
    EBITEUR 300.5mEUR 300.9mEUR 301.2mEUR 301.5mEUR 301.9m+0.1%
    NOPATEUR 244.8mEUR 245.1mEUR 245.3mEUR 245.6mEUR 245.9m+0.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 286.0mEUR 286.3mEUR 286.6mEUR 287.0mEUR 287.3m+0.1%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -286.0mEUR -286.3mEUR -286.6mEUR -287.0mEUR -287.3m+0.1%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -1.1mEUR -1.1mEUR -1.1mEUR -1.1mEUR -1.1m+0.1%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 243.7mEUR 244.0mEUR 244.2mEUR 244.5mEUR 244.8m+0.1%
    Discount factor0.97180.91780.86680.81860.7731-
    Present valueEUR 236.8mEUR 223.9mEUR 211.7mEUR 200.2mEUR 189.3m-5.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 1.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.504Reported 0.260, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.48%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 4.4bn60.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 2.8bn39.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.89%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 8.75

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 244.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 245.9m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (42.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -104.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 141.5m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    5.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 4.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 4.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 2.3bn

    Exit at 12.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 17.65

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 7.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 5.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 6.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 4.6bn

    Spread between methods: 67%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.89%16.9417.0417.1417.2517.48
    4.89%11.9312.0112.0912.1612.24
    5.89%8.628.688.758.818.87
    6.89%6.286.336.386.436.48
    7.89%4.524.574.614.654.69

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 16.80. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year0.1%11.2%+11.1pp
    EBIT margin31.3%46.3%+15.1pp
    Discount rate5.9%3.9%-1.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.