ENI.MI · MIL · Energy
Eni S.p.A.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR 12.02
Market price
EUR 23.95
Implied upside
-49.8%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 70.0bn | EUR 59.7bn | EUR 50.9bn | EUR 43.4bn | EUR 37.0bn | -14.7% |
| EBIT | EUR 6.6bn | EUR 5.6bn | EUR 4.8bn | EUR 4.1bn | EUR 3.5bn | -14.7% |
| NOPAT | EUR 4.9bn | EUR 4.2bn | EUR 3.6bn | EUR 3.1bn | EUR 2.6bn | -14.7% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 5.4bn | EUR 4.6bn | EUR 3.9bn | EUR 3.4bn | EUR 2.9bn | -14.7% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -6.4bn | EUR -5.5bn | EUR -4.7bn | EUR -4.0bn | EUR -3.4bn | -14.7% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR 3.2bn | EUR 2.7bn | EUR 2.3bn | EUR 2.0bn | EUR 1.7bn | +14.7% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 7.1bn | EUR 6.0bn | EUR 5.1bn | EUR 4.4bn | EUR 3.7bn | -14.7% |
| Discount factor | 0.9691 | 0.9101 | 0.8547 | 0.8026 | 0.7538 | - |
| Present value | EUR 6.9bn | EUR 5.5bn | EUR 4.4bn | EUR 3.5bn | EUR 2.8bn | -19.9% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 23.1bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.491 | Reported 0.241, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.39% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 6.20% | Implied cost of debt of 23.0% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes. |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 68.8bn | 66.8% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 34.2bn | 33.2% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.48% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
59% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 3.7bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 2.6bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.5% of NOPAT)
- EUR -899.5m
- Capitalised
- EUR 1.7bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 7.2%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 43.9bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 33.1bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 56.2bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 19.1bn
- Equity value
- EUR 37.1bn
Exit at 7.4x EBITDA
61% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 47.0bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 35.4bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 58.5bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 19.1bn
- Equity value
- EUR 39.4bn
Spread between methods: 6%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.48% | 20.29 | 22.20 | 25.06 | 29.80 | 39.31 |
| 5.48% | 14.86 | 15.52 | 16.38 | 17.58 | 19.35 |
| 6.48% | 11.57 | 11.77 | 12.02 | 12.32 | 12.71 |
| 7.48% | 9.43 | 9.47 | 9.51 | 9.55 | 9.59 |
| 8.48% | 8.02 | 8.05 | 8.08 | 8.12 | 8.15 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 23.95. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | -14.7% | -0.0% | +14.7pp |
| EBIT margin | 9.4% | 16.4% | +7.0pp |
| Discount rate | 6.5% | 4.6% | -1.9pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.