DCF Studio

    ENR.DE · GER · Industrials

    Siemens Energy AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 16.39

    Market price

    EUR 140.20

    Implied upside

    -88.3%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 34.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 16.39-88.3%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 38.13-72.8%
    Market price
    EUR 140.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 43.2bnEUR 47.7bnEUR 52.6bnEUR 58.1bnEUR 64.2bn+10.4%
    EBITEUR -1.0bnEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.5bn-10.4%
    NOPATEUR -750.3mEUR -828.6mEUR -915.2mEUR -1.0bnEUR -1.1bn-10.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.1bn+10.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.8bnEUR -2.0bnEUR -2.2bnEUR -2.4bnEUR -2.7bn+10.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.4bn-10.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.7bn+10.4%
    Discount factor0.94540.84500.75530.67500.6033-
    Present valueEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.6bn-1.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 8.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta1.582Reported 1.868, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.09%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.58%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 119.3bn96.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.0bn3.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.88%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 16.39

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 0.00
    Enterprise value
    EUR 8.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -6.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 14.5bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 38.13

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 31.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 19.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 27.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -6.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 33.7bn

    Spread between methods: 80%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.88%16.8216.8216.8216.8216.82
    10.88%16.6016.6016.6016.6016.60
    11.88%16.3916.3916.3916.3916.39
    12.88%16.1816.1816.1816.1816.18
    13.88%15.9915.9915.9915.9915.99

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 140.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year10.4%56.0%+45.5pp
    EBIT margin-2.3%25.6%+27.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.