DCF Studio

    EOG · NYQ · Energy

    EOG Resources, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 199.40

    Market price

    USD 157.89

    Implied upside

    +26.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 25.0% of revenue against depreciation of 16.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 199.40+26.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 151.51-4.0%
    Market price
    USD 157.89

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn6bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 30.5bnUSD 27.4bnUSD 25.0bnUSD 23.2bnUSD 22.0bnUSD 21.1bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 20.5bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 21.2bn-3.9%
    EBITUSD 11.7bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bn-3.9%
    NOPATUSD 9.3bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bn-3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bn-3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -7.6bnUSD -6.7bnUSD -6.0bnUSD -5.4bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.2bn-6.4%
    Capex, % of revenue25.0%24.4%23.9%23.3%22.7%22.1%21.5%20.9%20.4%19.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -370.9mUSD 146.2mUSD 110.9mUSD 82.7mUSD 59.5mUSD 39.8mUSD 22.5mUSD 6.6mUSD -8.8mUSD -24.4m-26.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.7bn-1.0%
    Discount factor0.96770.90620.84860.79460.74410.69680.65250.61110.57220.5359-
    Present valueUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 41.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.510Reported 0.269, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.05%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 30.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 82.8bn90.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.4bn9.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.79%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 199.40

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -780.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 5.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    20.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 135.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 72.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 113.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 108.9bn

    Exit at 7.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 151.51

    53% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 86.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 46.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 87.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 82.7bn

    Spread between methods: 27%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.79%292.05324.50371.51445.31577.10
    5.79%223.52238.95259.32287.29327.86
    6.79%180.92189.11199.40212.61230.08
    7.79%151.87156.48162.10169.06177.81
    8.79%130.80133.45136.64140.50145.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 157.89. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-8.5%-0.6%-3.2%
    EBIT margin48.3%38.5%31.4%
    Discount rate-6.8%7.9%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.