DCF Studio

    EQIX · NMS · Real Estate

    Equinix, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 48.41

    Market price

    USD 993.69

    Implied upside

    -95.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 4.9% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 36.8% of revenue against depreciation of 23.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 29.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 48.41-95.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 613.12-38.3%
    Market price
    USD 993.69

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 10.4bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 18.8bn+6.9%
    EBITUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+6.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bn+6.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bn+6.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.8bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -5.1bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.1bn+3.4%
    Capex, % of revenue36.8%35.7%34.7%33.6%32.6%31.5%30.4%29.4%28.3%27.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -111.5mUSD -115.0mUSD -115.5mUSD -113.5mUSD -108.9mUSD -101.4mUSD -91.2mUSD -78.2mUSD -62.7mUSD -45.1m-9.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 107.9mUSD 251.1mUSD 422.3mUSD 619.8mUSD 841.3mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bn+39.4%
    Discount factor0.96110.88770.82000.75740.69960.64620.59690.55130.50920.4704-
    Present valueUSD 103.7mUSD 223.0mUSD 346.3mUSD 469.4mUSD 588.6mUSD 700.2mUSD 800.8mUSD 887.3mUSD 957.3mUSD 1.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.977Reported 0.966, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.03%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 98.4bn81.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 22.7bn18.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate14.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.26%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 48.41

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -941.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 38.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 18.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 24.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 4.7bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 613.12

    92% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 156.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 73.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 79.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 60.2bn

    Spread between methods: 171%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.26%165.84159.80153.77147.73141.70
    7.26%103.2998.3893.4788.5683.64
    8.26%56.5752.4948.4144.3340.25
    9.26%20.4917.0513.6110.176.73
    10.26%-8.08-11.02-13.96-16.90-19.84

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 993.69. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.3%7.4%26.7%
    EBIT margin21.3%18.6%74.2%
    Discount rate-8.3%3.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.