DCF Studio

    EQT · NYQ · Energy

    EQT Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 132.59

    Market price

    USD 54.84

    Implied upside

    +141.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 132.59+141.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 166.83+204.2%
    Market price
    USD 54.84

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn6bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.1bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 15.2bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 22.6bnUSD 26.4bnUSD 29.9bnUSD 32.8bnUSD 34.8bnUSD 35.6bn+16.4%
    EBITUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.5bn+16.4%
    NOPATUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.5bn+16.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.8bn+16.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -6.2bnUSD -7.6bnUSD -9.1bnUSD -10.6bnUSD -11.9bnUSD -12.9bnUSD -13.5bn+19.2%
    Capex, % of revenue30.5%31.3%32.1%32.9%33.7%34.6%35.4%36.2%37.0%37.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 2.2mUSD 8.3mUSD 9.6mUSD 10.6mUSD 11.2mUSD 11.1mUSD 10.2mUSD 8.4mUSD 5.8mUSD 2.6m-1.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 5.7bn+11.6%
    Discount factor0.96460.89750.83510.77700.72300.67270.62590.58240.54190.5042-
    Present valueUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 2.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 30.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.778Reported 0.669, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.19%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 34.3bn81.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 7.9bn18.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.47%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 132.59

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 8.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.7bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 117.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 59.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 89.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 81.6bn

    Exit at 7.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 166.83

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 159.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 80.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 110.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 102.7bn

    Spread between methods: 23%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.47%199.49196.67193.84191.02188.20
    6.47%162.88160.63158.39156.14153.89
    7.47%136.25134.42132.59130.75128.92
    8.47%116.06114.54113.02111.49109.97
    9.47%100.2798.9897.6996.4195.12

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 54.84. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-11.7%15.6%6.2%
    EBIT margin63.9%29.6%13.6%
    Discount rate-7.5%14.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.