DCF Studio

    ERF.PA · PAR · Healthcare

    Eurofins Scientific SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 32.45

    Market price

    EUR 76.44

    Implied upside

    -57.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 32.45-57.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 64.81-15.2%
    Market price
    EUR 76.44

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m301m601mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 7.5bnEUR 7.7bnEUR 7.9bnEUR 8.2bnEUR 8.4bn+2.8%
    EBITEUR 782.5mEUR 804.6mEUR 827.3mEUR 850.6mEUR 874.6m+2.8%
    NOPATEUR 580.6mEUR 597.0mEUR 613.9mEUR 631.2mEUR 649.0m+2.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 626.5mEUR 644.1mEUR 662.3mEUR 681.0mEUR 700.2m+2.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -700.0mEUR -719.7mEUR -740.0mEUR -760.9mEUR -782.4m+2.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 31.0mEUR 31.9mEUR 32.8mEUR 33.7mEUR 34.6m-2.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 538.1mEUR 553.3mEUR 568.9mEUR 584.9mEUR 601.4m+2.8%
    Discount factor0.96610.90160.84150.78530.7329-
    Present valueEUR 519.8mEUR 498.8mEUR 478.7mEUR 459.4mEUR 440.8m-4.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 2.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.898Reported 0.848, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.59%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.91%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 13.1bn74.7% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.4bn25.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.15%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 32.45

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 601.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 694.2m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.0% of NOPAT)
    EUR -242.8m
    Capitalised
    EUR 451.4m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 10.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 9.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 6.1bn

    Exit at 11.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 64.81

    85% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 18.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 13.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 15.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 12.1bn

    Spread between methods: 67%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.15%58.2861.7766.5173.3484.18
    6.15%42.0242.9744.1145.5647.46
    7.15%32.0732.2632.4532.6432.83
    8.15%25.6425.8025.9626.1226.28
    9.15%20.6320.7620.9021.0421.17

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 76.44. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.8%16.4%+13.6pp
    EBIT margin10.4%19.5%+9.1pp
    Discount rate7.1%4.9%-2.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.