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    ES · NYQ · Utilities

    Eversource Energy

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 13.05

    Market price

    USD 69.55

    Implied upside

    -81.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 33.2% of revenue against depreciation of 13.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 13.05-81.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 32.12-53.8%
    Market price
    USD 69.55

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.4bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 17.1bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 19.3bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bn+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -3.5bn-2.9%
    Capex, % of revenue33.2%31.5%29.8%28.2%26.5%24.8%23.1%21.4%19.8%18.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.6mUSD -14.9mUSD -14.6mUSD -14.3mUSD -13.8mUSD -13.2mUSD -12.5mUSD -11.7mUSD -10.7mUSD -9.7m+15.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -496.1mUSD -292.6mUSD -52.3mUSD 211.6mUSD 498.3mUSD 806.1mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.2bn-
    Discount factor0.96920.91050.85530.80350.75480.70910.66610.62570.58780.5522-
    Present valueUSD -480.9mUSD -266.4mUSD -44.8mUSD 170.1mUSD 376.1mUSD 571.6mUSD 754.9mUSD 924.6mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.774Reported 0.663, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.17%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 26.2bn46.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 30.1bn53.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.45%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 13.05

    88% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (38.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 55.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 30.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 34.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 30.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 4.8bn

    Exit at 10.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 32.12

    90% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 68.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 37.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 41.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 30.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.9bn

    Spread between methods: 84%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.45%80.7680.7282.0686.2197.60
    5.45%40.5838.3436.1033.8631.62
    6.45%16.6214.8313.0411.269.47
    7.45%-0.64-2.10-3.56-5.02-6.49
    8.45%-13.59-14.81-16.03-17.25-18.47

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 69.55. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.3%3.6%8.6%
    EBIT margin22.7%20.7%30.6%
    Discount rate-6.5%4.6%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.