DCF Studio

    EVRG · NMS · Utilities

    Evergy, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 24.00

    Market price

    USD 86.55

    Implied upside

    -72.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 41.6% of revenue against depreciation of 19.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 24.00-72.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 67.93-21.5%
    Market price
    USD 86.55

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.1bn+4.2%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+4.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bn+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.5bn-0.3%
    Capex, % of revenue41.6%40.0%38.5%37.0%35.5%33.9%32.4%30.9%29.4%27.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -10.5mUSD -11.2mUSD -11.0mUSD -10.7mUSD -10.3mUSD -9.8mUSD -9.2mUSD -8.4mUSD -7.6mUSD -6.7m-4.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 65.6mUSD 171.1mUSD 288.4mUSD 416.3mUSD 554.2mUSD 701.0mUSD 855.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bn+40.0%
    Discount factor0.96700.90420.84540.79050.73920.69110.64620.60430.56500.5283-
    Present valueUSD 63.5mUSD 154.7mUSD 243.8mUSD 329.1mUSD 409.6mUSD 484.5mUSD 553.0mUSD 614.5mUSD 668.5mUSD 714.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.644Reported 0.469, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.62%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.0bn56.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.2bn43.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate3.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.95%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 24.00

    80% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (36.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -764.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 5.6bn

    Exit at 12.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 67.93

    86% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 50.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 31.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 15.9bn

    Spread between methods: 96%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.95%84.3186.7791.0798.66112.92
    5.95%46.9244.9943.0741.1439.21
    6.95%27.1125.5524.0022.4420.88
    7.95%12.4911.209.928.637.34
    8.95%1.300.22-0.86-1.94-3.02

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 86.55. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.6%4.3%10.2%
    EBIT margin25.7%24.1%37.0%
    Discount rate-6.9%5.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.