DCF Studio

    EVT.AX · ASX · Communication Services

    EVT Limited

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    AUD -4.90

    Market price

    AUD 13.24

    Implied upside

    -137.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD -4.90-137.0%
    Exit multiple
    AUD 24.31+83.6%
    Market price
    AUD 13.24

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (AUD). Outflows negative.

    0m71m142mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayAUD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueAUD 1.4bnAUD 1.7bnAUD 2.0bnAUD 2.3bnAUD 2.7bn+17.8%
    EBITAUD -22.5mAUD -26.5mAUD -31.2mAUD -36.7mAUD -43.3m-17.8%
    NOPATAUD -15.7mAUD -18.5mAUD -21.8mAUD -25.7mAUD -30.3m-17.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationAUD 265.4mAUD 312.6mAUD 368.3mAUD 433.8mAUD 511.0m+17.8%
    Less capital expenditureAUD -161.3mAUD -190.0mAUD -223.8mAUD -263.6mAUD -310.6m+17.8%
    Less increase in working capitalAUD -14.7mAUD -17.4mAUD -20.5mAUD -24.1mAUD -28.4m+17.8%
    Free cashflow to firmAUD 73.6mAUD 86.7mAUD 102.2mAUD 120.4mAUD 141.8m+17.8%
    Discount factor0.96570.90070.84000.78340.7306-
    Present valueAUD 71.1mAUD 78.1mAUD 85.8mAUD 94.3mAUD 103.6m+9.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastAUD 432.9m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.35%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.666Reported 0.502, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.35%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.35%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationAUD 2.2bn62.1% of capital
    Total debtAUD 1.3bn37.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate30.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.22%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareAUD -4.90

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    AUD 432.9m
    Less net debt
    AUD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    AUD -806.0m

    Exit at 14.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareAUD 24.31

    92% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 6.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 4.8bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 5.2bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    AUD 4.0bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (AUD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.22%-4.76-4.76-4.76-4.76-4.76
    6.22%-4.83-4.83-4.83-4.83-4.83
    7.22%-4.90-4.90-4.90-4.90-4.90
    8.22%-4.96-4.96-4.96-4.96-4.96
    9.22%-5.03-5.03-5.03-5.03-5.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 13.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin-1.6%11.4%+12.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.