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    Implied value per share

    USD 116.18

    Market price

    USD 89.46

    Implied upside

    +29.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 116.18+29.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 86.87-2.9%
    Market price
    USD 89.46

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 14.4bn+4.7%
    EBITUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bn+4.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+4.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+4.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -4.0bn+5.8%
    Capex, % of revenue25.1%25.4%25.6%25.9%26.1%26.4%26.6%26.9%27.2%27.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 132.9mUSD -33.0mUSD -32.5mUSD -31.6mUSD -30.2mUSD -28.5mUSD -26.3mUSD -23.7mUSD -20.8mUSD -17.5m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+1.3%
    Discount factor0.96800.90710.85000.79650.74630.69940.65530.61410.57540.5392-
    Present valueUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 979.7mUSD 927.2mUSD 872.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 10.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.578Reported 0.370, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.34%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.7bn80.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.1bn19.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.72%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 116.18

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -336.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 39.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.9bn

    Exit at 4.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 86.87

    57% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 20.9bn

    Spread between methods: 29%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.72%183.04203.79234.24282.85372.01
    5.72%135.30144.54156.87174.01199.18
    6.72%105.89110.42116.18123.67133.69
    7.72%85.9688.2491.0794.6399.19
    8.72%71.5772.6674.0275.7277.86

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 89.46. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.1%1.7%-0.8%
    EBIT margin32.6%17.3%13.9%
    Discount rate-6.7%7.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.