DCF Studio

    EXO.AS · AMS · Financial Services

    Exor N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR -3.12

    Market price

    EUR 68.50

    Implied upside

    -104.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedOnly 3 year(s) of history available to anchor assumptions on.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 3.9% of revenue against depreciation of 2.9%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteNo analyst revenue estimates available, so the consensus scenario is unavailable.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR -3.12-104.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR -3.12-104.6%
    Market price
    EUR 68.50

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY25FY26FY27FY28FY29
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY25FY26FY27FY28FY29CAGR
    RevenueEUR 9.3bnEUR 5.6bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 1.2bn-39.5%
    EBITEUR 629.0mEUR 380.5mEUR 230.2mEUR 139.2mEUR 84.2m-39.5%
    NOPATEUR 541.5mEUR 327.6mEUR 198.2mEUR 119.9mEUR 72.5m-39.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 266.8mEUR 161.4mEUR 97.6mEUR 59.1mEUR 35.7m-39.5%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -358.9mEUR -217.1mEUR -131.3mEUR -79.5mEUR -48.1m-39.5%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 787.7mEUR 476.5mEUR 288.3mEUR 174.4mEUR 105.5m+39.5%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.2bnEUR 748.4mEUR 452.7mEUR 273.9mEUR 165.7m-39.5%
    Discount factor0.96340.89430.83010.77060.7153-
    Present valueEUR 1.2bnEUR 669.3mEUR 375.8mEUR 211.0mEUR 118.5m-43.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 2.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.658Reported 0.490, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.48%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 22.5bn84.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.1bn15.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.73%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR -3.12

    21% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 165.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 72.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.3% of NOPAT)
    EUR -23.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 49.1m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 961.4m
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 687.6m
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR -682.9m

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR -3.12

    21% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 959.7m
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 686.4m
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR -684.1m

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.73%-1.06-0.87-0.64-0.330.11
    6.73%-2.32-2.28-2.23-2.17-2.10
    7.73%-3.15-3.13-3.12-3.10-3.09
    8.73%-3.78-3.76-3.75-3.74-3.72
    9.73%-4.30-4.29-4.28-4.26-4.25

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 68.50. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-39.5%13.3%+52.8pp
    EBIT margin6.8%65.6%+58.8pp
    Discount rate7.7%2.8%-5.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.