DCF Studio

    EXPD · NYQ · Industrials

    Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 107.05

    Market price

    USD 200.56

    Implied upside

    -46.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.45% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 107.05-46.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 154.29-23.1%
    Market price
    USD 200.56

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 14.3bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.0bn+1.4%
    EBITUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+1.4%
    NOPATUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+1.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 71.3mUSD 71.5mUSD 72.0mUSD 72.6mUSD 73.4mUSD 74.5mUSD 75.7mUSD 77.2mUSD 79.0mUSD 80.9m+1.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -132.4mUSD -134.2mUSD -136.3mUSD -138.8mUSD -141.7mUSD -145.0mUSD -148.8mUSD -153.1mUSD -157.9mUSD -163.3m+2.4%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -166.9mUSD -3.4mUSD -6.2mUSD -9.0mUSD -11.9mUSD -14.8mUSD -17.9mUSD -21.1mUSD -24.5mUSD -28.1m-18.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 821.6mUSD 987.1mUSD 989.1mUSD 993.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+3.1%
    Discount factor0.95680.87590.80190.73410.67200.61520.56320.51560.47200.4321-
    Present valueUSD 786.1mUSD 864.6mUSD 793.1mUSD 729.5mUSD 672.7mUSD 622.1mUSD 576.7mUSD 536.1mUSD 499.7mUSD 467.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.046Reported 1.068, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.32%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 26.1bn97.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 570.6m2.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.23%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 107.05

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (6.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -82.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    36.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -743.7m
    Equity value
    USD 14.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 154.29

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD -743.7m
    Equity value
    USD 21.0bn

    Spread between methods: 36%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.23%134.82140.96148.46157.80169.73
    8.23%115.78119.61124.15129.61136.28
    9.23%101.68104.16107.05110.44114.47
    10.23%90.8192.4794.3696.5699.12
    11.23%82.1983.3184.5886.0487.72

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 200.56. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-13.4%3.1%11.6%
    EBIT margin10.7%10.0%19.0%
    Discount rate-9.2%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.