DCF Studio

    EXPE · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Expedia Group, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 192.67

    Market price

    USD 298.99

    Implied upside

    -35.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 192.67-35.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 268.43-10.2%
    Market price
    USD 298.99

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 16.2bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 18.5bnUSD 19.5bnUSD 20.6bnUSD 21.6bnUSD 22.5bnUSD 23.3bnUSD 24.0bnUSD 24.6bn+4.7%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bn+4.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bn+4.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+4.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -932.9mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bn+7.7%
    Capex, % of revenue5.8%5.9%6.1%6.3%6.5%6.7%6.8%7.0%7.2%7.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 11.4mUSD 8.7mUSD 8.6mUSD 8.3mUSD 8.0mUSD 7.5mUSD 6.9mUSD 6.3mUSD 5.5mUSD 4.6m+9.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+2.7%
    Discount factor0.95640.87470.80010.73180.66930.61220.55990.51210.46840.4284-
    Present valueUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 989.8mUSD 908.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.262Reported 1.391, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.23%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 35.9bn84.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.4bn15.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 192.67

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -381.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    16.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 26.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 682.0m
    Equity value
    USD 25.4bn

    Exit at 12.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 268.43

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 54.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 36.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 682.0m
    Equity value
    USD 35.4bn

    Spread between methods: 33%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.33%253.61261.32270.89282.99298.59
    8.33%216.06220.12225.11231.26238.95
    9.33%188.10190.15192.68195.79199.63
    10.33%166.49167.36168.49169.92171.73
    11.33%149.28149.44149.75150.21150.87

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 298.99. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.1%5.3%10.6%
    EBIT margin14.7%12.3%19.2%
    Discount rate-9.3%6.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.