DCF Studio

    F · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Ford Motor Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -25.95

    Market price

    USD 12.60

    Implied upside

    -306.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 35.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -25.95-306.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 3.40-73.0%
    Market price
    USD 12.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -0bn2bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 176.2bnUSD 180.0bnUSD 184.0bnUSD 188.1bnUSD 192.4bnUSD 196.8bnUSD 201.5bnUSD 206.4bnUSD 211.4bnUSD 216.7bn+2.3%
    EBITUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+2.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn+2.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.0bn+2.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -8.1bnUSD -8.4bnUSD -8.6bnUSD -8.9bnUSD -9.2bnUSD -9.5bnUSD -9.8bnUSD -10.1bnUSD -10.5bnUSD -10.8bn+3.3%
    Capex, % of revenue4.6%4.6%4.7%4.7%4.8%4.8%4.9%4.9%5.0%5.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 3.2bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bn-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 5.0bnUSD 701.6mUSD 614.9mUSD 524.4mUSD 429.7mUSD 330.5mUSD 226.7mUSD 117.8mUSD 3.6mUSD -116.4m-
    Discount factor0.96660.90310.84370.78830.73650.68810.64280.60060.56110.5242-
    Present valueUSD 4.9bnUSD 633.5mUSD 518.8mUSD 413.3mUSD 316.4mUSD 227.4mUSD 145.7mUSD 70.8mUSD 2.0mUSD -61.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.609Reported 1.909, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.70%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a D rating at -6.9x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 0.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 50.3bn23.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 165.7bn76.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.03%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -25.95

    70% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD -116.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -783.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 32.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 24.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 127.3bn
    Equity value
    USD -103.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 3.40

    95% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 254.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 133.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 140.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 127.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.5bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.03%-23.02-23.17-23.32-23.48-23.63
    6.03%-24.63-24.75-24.87-24.99-25.11
    7.03%-25.76-25.86-25.95-26.05-26.14
    8.03%-26.59-26.67-26.75-26.83-26.90
    9.03%-27.22-27.28-27.35-27.42-27.48

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 12.60. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    EBIT margin4.0%1.2%7.9%
    Discount rate-7.0%2.6%
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    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.