DCF Studio

    FAST · NMS · Industrials

    Fastenal Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 27.56

    Market price

    USD 52.55

    Implied upside

    -47.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 32.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 27.56-47.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 39.49-24.9%
    Market price
    USD 52.55

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.3bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.8bnUSD 15.3bnUSD 15.7bn+6.0%
    EBITUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+6.0%
    NOPATUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bn+6.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 220.3mUSD 241.2mUSD 261.9mUSD 282.2mUSD 301.5mUSD 319.6mUSD 335.9mUSD 350.1mUSD 361.9mUSD 371.0m+6.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -252.5mUSD -285.5mUSD -319.8mUSD -355.1mUSD -390.7mUSD -426.0mUSD -460.3mUSD -493.0mUSD -523.1mUSD -550.0m+9.0%
    Capex, % of revenue2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -366.7mUSD -288.3mUSD -286.6mUSD -279.7mUSD -267.3mUSD -249.3mUSD -225.8mUSD -196.9mUSD -163.1mUSD -125.0m-11.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn+8.1%
    Discount factor0.96170.88930.82240.76060.70330.65040.60150.55630.51440.4757-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 11.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.773Reported 0.661, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.16%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 267.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 60.3bn99.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 441.9m0.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 27.56

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (7.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -201.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    31.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 42.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 31.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 165.1m
    Equity value
    USD 31.7bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 39.49

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 71.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 34.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 45.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 165.1m
    Equity value
    USD 45.4bn

    Spread between methods: 36%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.13%37.3740.1143.6248.2754.73
    7.13%30.3331.9133.8436.2639.37
    8.13%25.4426.4127.5628.9530.66
    9.13%21.8522.4623.1924.0425.06
    10.13%19.1019.5119.9820.5221.15

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 52.55. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.5%6.7%15.1%
    EBIT margin20.8%20.5%38.0%
    Discount rate-8.1%5.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.