DCF Studio

    FBK.MI · MIL · Financial Services

    FinecoBank Banca Fineco S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 25.55

    Market price

    EUR 22.79

    Implied upside

    +12.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 25.55+12.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 32.20+41.3%
    Market price
    EUR 22.79

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m486m972mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 1.7bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bn+12.7%
    EBITEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bn+12.7%
    NOPATEUR 786.2mEUR 885.8mEUR 998.0mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bn+12.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 34.5mEUR 38.9mEUR 43.8mEUR 49.3mEUR 55.6m+12.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -20.5mEUR -23.1mEUR -26.0mEUR -29.3mEUR -33.0m+12.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -196.7mEUR -221.6mEUR -249.7mEUR -281.3mEUR -317.0m+12.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 603.5mEUR 679.9mEUR 766.1mEUR 863.1mEUR 972.5m+12.7%
    Discount factor0.95640.87470.80000.73170.6693-
    Present valueEUR 577.1mEUR 594.7mEUR 612.9mEUR 631.6mEUR 650.8m+3.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.809Reported 0.715, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.46%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt9.80%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 13.9bn94.1% of capital
    Total debtEUR 872.9m5.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 25.55

    79% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 972.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.7% of NOPAT)
    EUR -148.6m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    21.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 16.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 11.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 14.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 15.6bn

    Exit at 13.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 32.20

    83% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 22.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 15.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 18.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 19.7bn

    Spread between methods: 23%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.33%31.8033.5435.6338.2041.42
    8.33%27.2628.4029.7231.2833.17
    9.33%23.8924.6625.5526.5627.75
    10.33%21.2921.8322.4423.1323.92
    11.33%19.2319.6220.0520.5321.07

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 22.79. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year12.7%9.2%-3.5pp
    EBIT margin59.9%53.3%-6.6pp
    Discount rate9.3%10.2%+0.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.