DCF Studio

    FCT.MI · MIL · Industrials

    Fincantieri S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR -3.95

    Market price

    EUR 12.43

    Implied upside

    -131.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR -3.95-131.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 6.46-48.0%
    Market price
    EUR 12.43

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m70m139mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 9.5bnEUR 10.1bnEUR 10.8bnEUR 11.5bnEUR 12.3bn+6.7%
    EBITEUR -30.5mEUR -32.5mEUR -34.7mEUR -37.0mEUR -39.5m-6.7%
    NOPATEUR -22.9mEUR -24.4mEUR -26.0mEUR -27.7mEUR -29.6m-6.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 311.2mEUR 331.9mEUR 354.0mEUR 377.7mEUR 402.8m+6.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -361.6mEUR -385.7mEUR -411.5mEUR -438.9mEUR -468.2m+6.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 180.8mEUR 192.9mEUR 205.7mEUR 219.5mEUR 234.1m-6.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 107.5mEUR 114.6mEUR 122.3mEUR 130.4mEUR 139.1m+6.7%
    Discount factor0.96050.88600.81740.75400.6956-
    Present valueEUR 103.2mEUR 101.6mEUR 100.0mEUR 98.4mEUR 96.8m-1.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 499.9m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.857Reported 0.787, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.77%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.64%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 4.5bn66.1% of capital
    Total debtEUR 2.3bn33.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.40%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR -3.95

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 0.00
    Enterprise value
    EUR 499.9m
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR -1.3bn

    Exit at 13.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 6.46

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 4.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 2.1bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.40%-3.88-3.88-3.88-3.88-3.88
    7.40%-3.92-3.92-3.92-3.92-3.92
    8.40%-3.95-3.95-3.95-3.95-3.95
    9.40%-3.99-3.99-3.99-3.99-3.99
    10.40%-4.02-4.02-4.02-4.02-4.02

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 12.43. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.7%32.2%+25.5pp
    EBIT margin-0.3%4.7%+5.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.