DCF Studio

    FCX · NYQ · Basic Materials

    Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 94.38

    Market price

    USD 62.97

    Implied upside

    +49.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 18.1% of revenue against depreciation of 8.8%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 94.38+49.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 124.58+97.8%
    Market price
    USD 62.97

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn15bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 30.1bnUSD 36.5bnUSD 43.3bnUSD 50.4bnUSD 57.5bnUSD 64.3bnUSD 70.3bnUSD 75.4bnUSD 79.0bnUSD 81.0bn+11.6%
    EBITUSD 8.3bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 19.4bnUSD 20.8bnUSD 21.8bnUSD 22.3bn+11.6%
    NOPATUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 12.5bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 15.3bnUSD 16.4bnUSD 17.2bnUSD 17.6bn+11.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.2bn+11.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -5.5bnUSD -6.4bnUSD -7.2bnUSD -8.0bnUSD -8.8bnUSD -9.3bnUSD -9.7bnUSD -9.8bnUSD -9.7bnUSD -9.4bn+6.2%
    Capex, % of revenue18.1%17.4%16.7%16.0%15.2%14.5%13.8%13.1%12.3%11.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -823.2mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -980.4mUSD -709.2mUSD -385.8m-8.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 15.0bn+19.9%
    Discount factor0.95540.87200.79600.72650.66310.60530.55250.50430.46030.4201-
    Present valueUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 49.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.250Reported 1.373, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.18%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 17.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 90.4bn89.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 10.5bn10.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.56%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 94.38

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 15.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 17.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 15.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    19.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 223.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 93.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 142.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 136.2bn

    Exit at 11.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 124.58

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 327.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 137.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 186.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 179.8bn

    Spread between methods: 28%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.56%129.36134.72141.26149.39159.67
    8.56%107.04110.14113.84118.33123.81
    9.56%90.4592.2594.3896.9299.97
    10.56%77.6878.6979.8981.3283.03
    11.56%67.5768.0968.7269.4870.40

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 62.97. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.4%12.1%7.3%
    EBIT margin30.9%27.5%20.0%
    Discount rate-9.6%12.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.