DCF Studio

    FDR.MC · MCE · Consumer Cyclical

    Fluidra, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 9.61

    Market price

    EUR 17.68

    Implied upside

    -45.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 9.61-45.7%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 13.80-21.9%
    Market price
    EUR 17.68

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m154m307mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 1.9bn-2.9%
    EBITEUR 273.0mEUR 265.0mEUR 257.2mEUR 249.7mEUR 242.4m-2.9%
    NOPATEUR 204.7mEUR 198.7mEUR 192.9mEUR 187.3mEUR 181.8m-2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 155.3mEUR 150.7mEUR 146.3mEUR 142.0mEUR 137.9m-2.9%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -69.7mEUR -67.6mEUR -65.7mEUR -63.7mEUR -61.9m-2.9%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 17.0mEUR 16.5mEUR 16.0mEUR 15.5mEUR 15.1m+2.9%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 307.3mEUR 298.3mEUR 289.6mEUR 281.1mEUR 272.8m-2.9%
    Discount factor0.96150.88880.82170.75960.7022-
    Present valueEUR 295.5mEUR 265.1mEUR 237.9mEUR 213.5mEUR 191.6m-10.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 1.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.883Reported 0.825, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.94%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.52%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 3.3bn73.1% of capital
    Total debtEUR 1.2bn26.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 9.61

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 272.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 195.8m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -59.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 135.9m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 2.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 1.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 2.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 1.8bn

    Exit at 9.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 13.80

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 3.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 2.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 2.6bn

    Spread between methods: 36%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.17%14.4514.8615.3716.0216.90
    7.17%11.4411.5311.6411.7611.89
    8.17%9.529.569.619.659.70
    9.17%8.088.128.168.208.23
    10.17%6.926.956.997.027.05

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 17.68. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-2.9%9.3%+12.2pp
    EBIT margin12.7%20.7%+8.1pp
    Discount rate8.2%5.7%-2.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.