DCF Studio

    FICO · NYQ · Technology

    Fair Isaac Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 449.79

    Market price

    USD 724.19

    Implied upside

    -37.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 449.79-37.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 675.47-6.7%
    Market price
    USD 724.19

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+3.8%
    EBITUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.8%
    NOPATUSD 862.4mUSD 906.3mUSD 949.5mUSD 991.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 25.3mUSD 26.6mUSD 27.9mUSD 29.1mUSD 30.3mUSD 31.5mUSD 32.6mUSD 33.6mUSD 34.6mUSD 35.4m+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -26.5mUSD -33.3mUSD -40.5mUSD -48.3mUSD -56.5mUSD -65.1mUSD -74.0mUSD -83.2mUSD -92.6mUSD -102.2m+16.2%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.5%2.7%2.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -128.9mUSD -30.8mUSD -30.3mUSD -29.6mUSD -28.7mUSD -27.5mUSD -26.1mUSD -24.5mUSD -22.7mUSD -20.7m-18.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 732.4mUSD 868.9mUSD 906.5mUSD 942.9mUSD 977.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+4.8%
    Discount factor0.95720.87710.80370.73640.67470.61820.56650.51900.47560.4358-
    Present valueUSD 701.1mUSD 762.1mUSD 728.5mUSD 694.3mUSD 659.7mUSD 624.8mUSD 589.9mUSD 555.3mUSD 521.0mUSD 487.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.226Reported 1.338, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.08%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 15.6bn83.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.1bn16.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.14%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 449.79

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (5.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -66.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    45.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.0bn

    Exit at 19.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 675.47

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 30.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 16.6bn

    Spread between methods: 40%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.14%608.09646.51693.49752.15827.28
    8.14%497.11521.29549.98584.49626.71
    9.14%415.36431.28449.78471.48497.24
    10.14%352.67363.49375.88390.15406.74
    11.14%303.10310.62319.13328.81339.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 724.19. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year13.1%5.9%11.0%
    EBIT margin47.0%42.9%63.1%
    Discount rate-9.1%7.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.