DCF Studio

    FIS · NYQ · Technology

    Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 29.61

    Market price

    USD 40.15

    Implied upside

    -26.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 8.88% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 17.96%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 17.96% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 29.61-26.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 53.25+32.6%
    Market price
    USD 40.15

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.8bnUSD 15.4bnUSD 15.9bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 18.0bnUSD 18.4bn+3.4%
    EBITUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bn+3.4%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+3.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bn+3.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.1bn+5.9%
    Capex, % of revenue18.0%18.5%18.9%19.4%19.9%20.4%20.9%21.4%21.9%22.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -489.6mUSD -95.5mUSD -94.4mUSD -92.9mUSD -90.9mUSD -88.4mUSD -85.4mUSD -82.0mUSD -78.1mUSD -73.7m-19.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bn+1.7%
    Discount factor0.96650.90280.84330.78780.73590.68740.64210.59980.56030.5234-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 980.4mUSD 894.9mUSD 812.9mUSD 734.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 10.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.902Reported 0.853, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.71%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.7bn60.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 13.3bn39.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.05%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 29.61

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -811.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 28.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 15.5bn

    Exit at 9.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 53.25

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 57.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 40.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 28.0bn

    Spread between methods: 57%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.05%53.9552.8051.6450.4849.32
    6.05%40.6239.7038.7937.8836.96
    7.05%31.0930.3529.6128.8728.13
    8.05%23.9523.3422.7322.1121.50
    9.05%18.4117.9017.3816.8716.35

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 40.15. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.2%5.6%7.9%
    EBIT margin17.4%15.7%18.7%
    Discount rate-7.1%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.