DCF Studio

    FISV · NMS

    Fiserv, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 131.05

    Market price

    USD 51.93

    Implied upside

    +152.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 131.05+152.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 86.06+65.7%
    Market price
    USD 51.93

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn6bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 19.5bnUSD 20.2bnUSD 20.9bnUSD 21.6bnUSD 22.3bnUSD 22.9bnUSD 23.6bnUSD 24.3bnUSD 24.9bnUSD 25.5bn+3.0%
    EBITUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bn+3.0%
    NOPATUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bn+3.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bn+3.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -4.2bn+11.7%
    Capex, % of revenue7.9%8.8%9.8%10.7%11.7%12.6%13.5%14.5%15.4%16.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 265.9mUSD -110.4mUSD -110.1mUSD -109.6mUSD -108.7mUSD -107.6mUSD -106.2mUSD -104.4mUSD -102.3mUSD -99.9m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 5.9bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.1bn-1.6%
    Discount factor0.96740.90540.84740.79310.74230.69470.65020.60860.56960.5331-
    Present valueUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.7bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 39.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.000As reported
    Cost of equity9.12%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 27.6bn48.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 29.1bn51.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.85%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 131.05

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 4.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 113.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 60.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 100.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 28.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 71.9bn

    Exit at 6.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 86.06

    47% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 66.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 35.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 75.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 28.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 47.2bn

    Spread between methods: 41%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.85%231.75247.61271.12308.50375.22
    5.85%169.13173.73180.30189.87204.38
    6.85%129.84130.19131.05132.62135.22
    7.85%102.87101.43100.0598.7697.58
    8.85%84.7683.2181.6580.1078.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 51.93. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.1%1.9%-5.0%
    EBIT margin28.7%25.4%10.6%
    Discount rate-6.8%11.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.